Saturday, May 24, 2008

Assessing the risk of action against Iran


Is an Attack on Iran a Big Risk? -Yossi Melman

Various experts outline doomsday scenarios in the event of a military attack by the U.S. or Israel to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Fearing the reaction of the ayatollahs has a paralyzing effect. Even before the first shot has been fired, Iran can credit itself with a success. It created an image of an omnipotent country that will not hesitate to use its power to respond and avenge a military operation against it. This is an impressive psychological achievement.

Most experts estimate that in the event of an attack, the Iranians will launch Shihab missiles at Israel. But Shihab missiles are not considered particularly reliable and the Shihab's guidance system is not very accurate. Israel's Arrow missile defense system would certainly intercept quite a few Shihab missiles. Moreover, Iran's firing missiles at Israel would enable Israel to respond in a decisive manner. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that Hizbullah will react automatically by firing rockets.

[C]ontrary to the impression that has been formed, Iran's options for responding are limited and weak.
(Ha'aretz)


U.S., Israel "Afraid" of Iran's Power

Maj.-Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, said that the U.S. and the Zionist regime are "afraid of Iran's power, political and spiritual influence" in the Middle East.
(Press TV-Iran)

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