Friday, August 10, 2007

What is Syria up to?



We're talking about a Hizbullah-style war - but on an immense scale. Syria is currently completing the accelerated deployment of a large rocket arsenal on the Golan aimed at Israel. We're not talking about Katyusha rockets with a few dozen kilograms of explosives, but rather heavy rockets that can carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives and can reach Tel Aviv.

[A]t this time the IDF has no good technological response to heavy rockets. The Syrian army is quickly equipping itself with hundreds of advanced anti-aircraft and anti-tank rockets made by Russia and funded by Iran...

The military implication is that Syria is preparing and able to embark on a Hizbullah-style war of attrition...
(Ynet News)

2 comments:

LHwrites said...

I have included some of the text from the original opinion piece here, because I think it important to point out that the Israeli intelligence services and government believe this is much more likely a defensive measure, to the point where Olmert made the declaration that Israel is not seeking war, lest Syria believe they are going to be attacked in some "cleaning up" the Israelis may be considering in light of the recent missteps with Hezbollah, Hamas' resurgence, and Iran's emergence. Certainly, it is important to remember that any weapons can be used offensively at a moments notice, and it behooves Israel to be on guard, but this soundbite seemed poised to imply that an attack was imminent, and I examined it further to see why israel was not making a bigfger deal about it.:
Syrian rockets aimed at Tel Aviv
Long-range rockets already in place on Golan; is Syria preparing for war?
Published: 08.09.07, 21:59 / Israel Opinion
The latest official IDF intelligence branch assessment, adopted by the Israeli government, is that Syria is not planning to attack Israel. At least not in the coming months.

The accelerated preparations for war undertaken by the Syrian army recently, according to the assessment, are not aimed at launching an offensive, but rather, stem from fears in Damascus that the IDF plans to attack Syria. As proof of this, IDF intelligence researchers point to the fact that the Syrian army has not fundamentally changed its deployment, which is still mostly defensive, vis-à-vis Israel.

However, intelligence officials estimate that there is still a risk of a war breaking out even in the near future as a result of a wrong estimate (here or there) regarding the other side’s intentions – a “miscalculation” as it is referred to by IDF intelligence officers. This is why Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made sure to declare Wednesday that he was not seeking war.

Bruce said...

Quite true that several prominent Israeli analysts have came to more mild conclusions.

But this approach [seeing Syria as an emerging client of Iran, along with Hezbollah] seems to explain the trends better.

i hope you are right.
Time will tell.